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Low-end severe weather risk for Central Texas Sunday evening
Not everyone will see rain, but where storms form one or two could be strong with wind or hail.
AUSTIN, Texas — It was a fantastic Saturday across Central Texas, but now we’re looking ahead to some changes in our forecast. These changes will include a quick storm chance Sunday evening with the potential for a couple of strong storms, followed by our most promising rain chances in a while, expected on Thursday and Friday of next week.
Sunday morning will start with low clouds, patchy drizzle, and patchy fog, but no storms. However, by late afternoon into the evening, a weak cold front will move in from the north with a 40% chance for scattered showers and storms between 6 p.m. and midnight.
While not everyone will experience storms, where storms are able to form one or two could be strong to severe, with hail and strong winds as the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms.
As the front moves southward, rain chances will diminish by Sunday night, leading to a drier and warmer start to the week on Monday and Tuesday, with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s. However, a more substantial rain event is on the horizon for Thursday and Friday, where we continue to see pretty strong signals for widespread beneficial rain.
Although specifics are still being fine-tuned, models suggest rainfall totals ranging from 1 to 3 inches across the KVUE area. The American model shows a potential for even higher amounts in spots, but the more conservative European model aligns with a range of three-quarters of an inch to above an inch.
The Weather Prediction Center’s current outlook favors the 1 to 3 inches range, which would be a welcome relief as we continue to mitigate fire weather danger and increasing drought.
Though this rain won’t completely eliminate the exceptional drought conditions in the Hill Country, it’s a step in the right direction.
The KVUE Weather Team will continue to closely monitor this developing forecast.
Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, you can find the latest 7-day forecast below.
